World Cup preview: England

England are going into South Africa on the back of an impressive qualifying record of 9 wins from 10 and Fabio Capello’s side are looking to build on that form in the tournament proper. However, those victories were followed by unconvincing performances in the warm-up games against Mexico and Japan. If England reach at least the quarter-finals, as many expect, they could come up against far more accomplished teams who could actually take advantage of England’s shortcomings.

Capello’s 23-man squad contained a few surprises, though he seems to have gone against his supposed mantra of picking players on form instead of reputation. Here is the squad in full:

Goalkeepers: Green, James, Hart

Defenders: A. Cole, Terry, Johnson, Ferdinand, Carragher, King, Warnock, Upson

Midfielders: Barry, Lampard, Gerrard, Wright-Phillips, Lennon, Milner, J. Cole, Carrick

Attackers: Rooney, Defoe, Crouch, Heskey

On paper, the squad looks strong, although the lack of a classy holding midfield player and top-class keeper might be worrying for fans. More depressingly, there looks to be a serious weakness at right-back, which would no doubt be exploited by tricky wingers like Arjen Robben or Franck Ribéry. Robert Green looks like he will get the Number 1 spot, though all 3 keepers in the squad are of a similar, fairly high standard.

In defence, Rio Ferdinand and John Terry have had relatively poor seasons, but have still been picked over the likes of Michael Dawson of Spurs.  Hopefully, they can use all their international experience to raise their game for the World Cup. Only one specialist right-back (Glen Johnson) has been picked, though he is very suspect defensively. Johnson’s club colleague Jamie Carragher has been selected by Capello as possible back-up. For me, this is a confusing move, who decided to pluck the veteran out of international retirement, presumably for his versatility, even though he had a poor season for Liverpool at centre-back. At right-back, his lack of pace will be ruthlessly exposed at the World Cup and unlike Johnson, he doesn’t offer anything going forward. In a real emergency, Capello might look to deploy utility man James Milner at right-back, which would seem the smarter choice. On the left, Ashley Cole has returned to form and fitness after his ankle injury, with Stephen Warnock as a capable understudy.

The midfield and attack really depend on whether Capello persists with his preferred asymmetric 4-4-2 system, with Steven Gerrard cutting in from the left to support Wayne Rooney and the target man (Crouch or Heskey). To balance this, the speed of Aaron Lennon and Shaun Wright-Phillips will be used on the right, with width on the left provided by Ashley Cole. The inclusion of Joe Cole allows the system to be switched to a more conventional 4-4-2 and could see Gerrard playing behind centre-forward Rooney. The versatility of Cole, Milner and Wright-Phillips means there is no place for Theo Walcott or Adam Johnson. No natural left-footed winger removes the option of inswinging free-kicks and corners from the right, unless Gareth Barry improves his set-plays.

Barry will play a crucial role as the holding midfielder, when he gets fit. However, as a first choice he is no more than adequate. He is nowhere near the level of Javier Mascherano, Xabi Alonso (somebody tell Rafa!) or Cambiasso (who didn’t even make the Argentina squad). Someone like Michael Carrick might have to fill in for the opening game against the USA, depending on Barry’s injury. Frank Lampard will, as ever, be expected to control the midfield and score goals. The Chelsea man has been in fantastic form (as always) in the run up to the World Cup, and I fully expect him to show his class during the tournament.

Up front, the options to partner Rooney are Heskey, Defoe and Crouch. Rooney has had his best ever season in front of goal and will be looking to carry his red-hot goalscoring form into the tournament. On his day, he can be unstoppable and he will be the one player in the squad other teams are afraid of. Even though he has had a poor season, Heskey is seen by Capello to be the perfect foil for Rooney. The stats seem to bear this out, as Rooney has scored 9 in his last 10 with Heskey, but 4 in the last 10 without.

Capello's preferred 4-4-2

Alternative 4-4-2

On the whole, England’s squad looks strong, but Capello will have to work hard on defensive insecurities on the training field. Ultimately, they should progress out of their group comfortably and from there, anything is possible. On the most recent evidence available, I predict a semi-final exit.